As the cohort of 2028 commences receiving notifications from colleges regarding their admission status, a clearer depiction of the year’s admissions statistics is unfolding.
The individuals belonging to the class of 2028 have initiated the reception of their college acceptance and rejection correspondence in the preceding week. The acceptance rates at highly selective educational institutions have further plummeted to minimal single-digit percentages, with a few exceptions standing out. Concurrently, numerous public flagship universities and mid-sized private colleges have heightened their level of selectivity.
Nevertheless, this season has posed challenges across the board. The turmoil and exasperation surrounding the [admissions process] has resulted in an approximate 30 percent decrease in the completion of the student aid form this year. Advocates are concerned that this decline could potentially lead to a significant reduction in the rates of low-income and first-generation students pursuing higher education, as they heavily rely on federal aid. Additionally, the community awaits the implications of the Supreme Court’s decision on access and fairness in college admissions.
While comprehensive data on applicant demographics remains limited at this early juncture in the spring, a complete overview of the class of 2028 will not materialize until at least June. Nonetheless, certain preliminary trends merit attention.
Key Highlights:
Surge in Applications
The data reveals a nearly 6 percent increase in the number of applicants compared to the previous year. This growth is specific to the 834 institutions that consistently utilized the Common App from 2019 to 2024. This positive trend follows years of stagnant enrollments post-pandemic and aligns with a [previous increase] in the fall.
Moreover, students have applied to slightly more colleges this cycle, with an average of 5.74 applications per student, up from 5.66.
At some colleges, the surge in applications appears to be a response to affordability initiatives. For instance, Duke University announced last summer its provision of free tuition for applicants from North and South Carolina with family incomes below \(150,000 annually. Consequently, this cycle witnessed a higher number of applications to Duke compared to last year, with 1,250 applicants hailing from North or South Carolina. Similarly, in Minnesota, public college enrollment surged following the state’s implementation of a free tuition program for residents earning less than \)80,000 per year.
However, the landscape of enrollment and application numbers is evolving. There is a growing interest in vocational and credential programs as confidence in the value of a traditional four-year bachelor’s degree diminishes.
Robert Massa, a seasoned professional in undergraduate enrollment formerly associated with Dickinson College and Johns Hopkins University, anticipates that the shift towards shorter-term degrees coupled with the substantial decline in FAFSA completion rates will adversely impact the yield rates of four-year colleges by early summer.
Shift in Acceptance Rates
Admission to highly selective institutions has become even more cutthroat this cycle, continuing a trend observed over the past decade. Notably, Yale University experienced a [record number] of applications, surpassing its previous record by nearly 10 percent, resulting in an acceptance rate of 3.7 percent—the lowest in its history. Similarly, several highly selective non-Ivy institutions reported record-low acceptance rates.
On the contrary, Harvard University witnessed a marginal increase in its acceptance rate, marking its first rise since 2020. This shift coincided with a slight decrease in applications to the university compared to the previous year. This deviation follows a year of controversy surrounding Harvard president Claudine Gay, addressing issues of campus antisemitism and plagiarism allegations.
Many public institutions admitted a historically low proportion of applicants. For instance, the University of Texas at Austin received a record 73,000 applications this year and accepted only a fraction of non-automatic admits through Texas’ [admissions policy], aligning it with highly selective private institutions like Tufts University and the University of Notre Dame.
Editors’ Selections
Certain private universities are also witnessing heightened competitiveness. Northeastern University observed a surge of over 90,000 applications, a nearly 30 percent increase from 2019. Conversely, Fairfield University in Connecticut experienced a decline in applications this cycle.
Massa emphasized that institutions like Northeastern are part of a sector in higher education adapting to the evolving landscape by aligning their educational models with employment prospects, yielding positive outcomes.
While acceptance rates for many institutions are yet to be disclosed, the most crucial data from this year’s admissions cycle, particularly pertaining to demographics at selective colleges, remains pending. Despite some promising early indicators, Massa warns against premature optimism, highlighting that an increase in applicants and lower acceptance rates do not guarantee sustained class yield.