The botched introduction of the 2024-25 FAFSA has resulted in a notable decrease in the volume of applications for [
].
This decline could potentially lead to a significant drop in enrollment for fall 2024, with some educational institutions facing the risk of closure.
Limited Data on Number of Submitted Applications
The U.S. Department of Education has refrained from releasing any detailed statistics regarding the quantity of applications received, apart from approximate figures disclosed in five press releases, outlined in the table below.
By February 28, 2024, a total of 4.7 million FAFSAs had been submitted, marking a 38% decrease compared to the same period the previous year, when approximately 7.6 million applications had been received.
If the current trends persist, the number of submissions by the conclusion of August 2024 is estimated to be around 2.8 million lower than the corresponding period in the prior year, representing a 19% reduction.
The U.S. Department of Education has drawn parallels between the rollout of the 2024-25 FAFSA and the 2016-17 cycle, which was the final year to commence on January 1. Subsequent to 2017-18, the FAFSA has adopted an October 1 commencement date.
Although the 3.1 million FAFSAs submitted by January 30, 2024, surpass the count of applications from the same timeframe in 2016-17, the pace of submissions in February notably decelerated.
As of February 28, 2024, 4.7 million FAFSAs had been submitted, in contrast to 5.5 million by the end of February 2016. By the close of August 2024, the total number of applications is projected to be 3.7 million lower than the figure recorded by August 2016.
The daily submission rate dropped to 55,000 FAFSAs in February 2024, a decline from 103,000 per day in January 2024. The elevated January figure likely stemmed from pent-up demand. The daily submission rate for February approximates the average from preceding years, hovering around 52,000 per day. However, in the latter half of February, the rate tapered to approximately 47,000 per day, falling below the corresponding period in the previous year or in February 2016.
The overall decrease in FAFSA submissions implies that the number of beneficiaries is anticipated to remain consistent with the previous year, notwithstanding the revised Federal Pell Grant criteria facilitating student eligibility.
It is plausible that applicants are deferring submission until the FAFSA platform is fully operational. Historically, low-income and first-generation college students tend to apply later than their counterparts from middle- and high-income backgrounds.
The graph illustrates the cumulative monthly FAFSA submissions for the 2024-25 and 2023-24 cycles. The projected trajectory of submissions from March through August, based on current patterns, is depicted by the blue line.
Unless there is a surge in submissions post the FAFSA’s full functionality restoration, the 2024-25 application count is unlikely to match or surpass the submissions from 2023-24.
Consequences of the FAFSA Fiasco
The issues surrounding the 2024-25 FAFSA and the preliminary “soft launch” phase have hindered numerous students from completing the application process.
- The delay allowed applicants to commence filing the FAFSA three months behind schedule.
- Some applicants and contributors have encountered obstacles preventing them from completing the FAFSA or have faced other submission-related challenges.
- Certain solutions proposed by the U.S. Department of Education have proven ineffective.
- Inadequate testing of the updated FAFSA has resulted in numerous implementation issues, particularly concerning [ppp[1]].
- The Federal Student Aid Information Center (FSAIC) call center has been inundated, leading to extended wait times and frequent call disconnections. Some callers are directed to voicemails prompting them to call back later, while messages sent via the secure online platform remain unanswered.
Several students have been unable to access their data or have encountered inaccuracies in their Student Aid Index (SAI).
- The belated decision to adjust the financial aid formula for the 18.3% inflation spanning April 2020 to April 2023 contributed to the delays in implementing the 2024-25 FAFSA.
- Some students are unable to view the Confirmation Page containing the SAI, contingent upon whether they or their contributors completed their section first. Consequently, they are unable to retrieve their SAI until they receive the FAFSA Submission Summary.
- Certain students received their SAI prior to the inflation adjustments.
The delayed processing of submitted FAFSAs has triggered additional issues, such as:
- Delayed dispatch of Institutional Student Information Records (ISIR) to colleges, resulting in delays in applicants receiving the FAFSA Submission Summary. The U.S. Department of Education anticipates commencing ISIR distribution to colleges in the initial half of March, potentially extending the timeline for colleges to receive all ISIRs.
- Applicants are precluded from making corrections to the FAFSA or modifying their college selections until they obtain the FAFSA Submission Summary.
- Due to the postponed ISIR delivery, colleges will delay issuing financial aid offers to admitted students. Typically, award notifications are disseminated in early March, but now, students may not receive them until April under the most optimistic scenario.
- Colleges are extending the Decision Day deadline for students to accept admission offers to May 15 or June 1.
Certain student demographics are disproportionately impacted by the FAFSA complications.
- Low-income students, first-generation college students, rural students, and underrepresented minority students are more susceptible to the challenges posed by the FAFSA issues.
- Students in [ppp[2]], Utah, [ppp[3]], and [ppp[4]] exhibit lower FAFSA submission rates.
- [ppp[5]], Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee have witnessed substantial declines in FAFSA submissions.