As the Class of 2028 commences the reception of college decision notifications, the admissions landscape for the year is gradually unfolding.
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The members of the class of 2028 have initiated the reception of their college acceptance and rejection letters in the past week. The acceptance rates at highly selective institutions have continued their decline, reaching the low single digits, with a few exceptions standing out. Furthermore, several public flagships and mid-sized private universities have also heightened their selectivity.
However, this season has posed challenges across the board. The turmoil and discontent surrounding the [ppp1] has resulted in an almost 30 percent decrease in the completion of the student aid form this year. Advocates are apprehensive that this decline could lead to a significant drop in college enrollment rates for low-income and first-generation students reliant on federal aid. Meanwhile, there is a collective anticipation regarding the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s decision on access and equity in college admissions.
While comprehensive data on applicant demographics remains limited at this early stage in the spring, painting a complete picture of the class of 2028 will likely not occur until at least June. Nonetheless, certain initial trends are noteworthy.
Key Highlights
Surge in Applications
Recent data indicates a nearly 6 percent increase in the number of applicants compared to the previous year. Although this data pertains only to the 834 member institutions that consistently utilized the Common App from 2019 to 2024, it signifies a positive development following years of stagnation in enrollments post-pandemic. Notably, students have applied to slightly more colleges this cycle, with an average of 5.74 applications per student, up from 5.66.
At select colleges, there appeared to be a surge in applications directly correlated to affordability initiatives. For instance, Duke University announced last summer its provision of free tuition for applicants from North and South Carolina with family incomes below \(150,000 per year. Consequently, Duke witnessed a higher number of applications this cycle, with 1,250 applicants hailing from North or South Carolina. Similarly, in Minnesota, public college enrollment saw an increase following the state’s implementation of a free tuition program for residents earning less than \)80,000 annually.
However, the landscape of enrollment and application numbers is evolving, with a growing interest in vocational and credential programs as skepticism towards the value of a traditional four-year bachelor’s degree intensifies.
Robert Massa, a seasoned professional in undergraduate enrollment formerly associated with Dickinson College and Johns Hopkins University, anticipates that the shift towards shorter-term degrees coupled with the substantial decline in FAFSA completion rates may adversely impact the yield rates of four-year colleges by early summer.
Decline in Acceptance Rates
Admission to highly selective institutions has become even more competitive this cycle, continuing a trend observed over the past decade. For instance, Yale University received a record number of applications, surpassing its previous record by nearly 10 percent, and reported its lowest-ever acceptance rate of 3.7 percent. Similarly, several highly selective non-Ivy institutions boasted record-low acceptance rates.
While some public institutions admitted a minimal share of applicants, private universities like Northeastern University and Fairfield University in Connecticut experienced contrasting trends in application numbers and acceptance rates.
Institutions like Northeastern University are adapting to the changing landscape by aligning their educational model with employment opportunities, a strategy that seems to be yielding positive outcomes.
As the admissions cycle progresses, the publication of acceptance rates for many institutions is pending, and crucial data on this year’s admissions cycle, particularly regarding demographics at selective colleges, is yet to be released. Despite some promising early data, Massa advises against unwarranted optimism, emphasizing that increased applications and reduced acceptance rates do not guarantee a high class yield.